In the first half of 2018 office areas of around 75 thousand square meters were handed over in five office buildings, which surpasses last year’s volume (5,500 m²) significantly. The main parts of the new areas were finished on Váci Street (about 60 thousand square metres). The biggest newly handed over building is Promenade Gardens (22,500 m²).
The building of further new office buildings, about 462 thousand square metres, has started; out of this 168 thousand square metres could be handed over until the end of the year (10 buildings). The office stock of Váci Street will probably surpass one million square metres in 2020. This means that the current office stock (25% of the market) will remain the largest sub-market in Budapest.
Industrial and logistics property market
Until the middle of 2018 new halls were handed over in three logistics parks with a total area of over 30 thousand square metres (out of which 25,691 m² is warehouse and 4564 m² offices). The size of the area handed over is significantly smaller (30%) than it was a year ago, but the completion of more, big sized units is being planned until the end of the year. The biggest new handed over building is located in Inpark Páty, and is used as a warehouse by Euronics (12,200 m²).
The major part of the 113 thousand square metre logistics property (100 thousand m²), which is being developed, is expected to be handed over this year. By this the annual development volume will grow by 11% compared to 2017. The biggest growth can be expected in Üllő Airport Logistics Center; here 85 thousand square metres can be used by tenants in the two halls before the end of the year.
In the first quarter of 2018 economic growth in Hungary grew by 4.4% compared to last year’s result. This is one of the most significant GDP growth measured in the EU. In the January-May period performance grew in several fields: industry (3.1%), construction industry (6.9%) and tourism (number of guests: 7.1%, income of commercial accommodation: 11%). Inflation in the first half of the year stood at 2.3%; in case of durables deflation could be seen. Labour-market indicators continued to improve; unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, employment rate increased to 69.1%. Average net income surpassed by 12.1% last year’s data in the January-May period. Base rate stills stands at 0.9%, the Hungarian forint weakened significantly compared to the euro (HUF/EUR 328.6).
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In the first quarter of 2018, two new buildings were handed over with the size of 18,020 sq m: a 11,020 sq m warehouse in East Gate Business Park, and a 7,000 sq m hall in the next phase of Budapest Dock Szabadkikötő building C. Furthermore, one existing building was included in the stock due to adequate quality and occupational status; the second building of Logicor’s Fehérakác property raised the industrial stock with 4,400 sq m. The total modern industrial stock in Budapest and its surroundings stood at 2,068,900 sq m at the end of Q1 2018.
Total demand amounted to 103,790 sq m in Q1 2018, marking a 45% increase over the figure noted in the same period last year. Lease renewals accounted for 72.7% of the quarterly volume, while the share of new leases was 21.8%. Expansions stood for 5.5% of the quarterly volume. No pre-lease agreement was signed in the first quarter of 2018. 24 leasing transactions were recorded in the first quarter, out of which two agreements were signed for more than 10,000 sq m. The average transaction size was 4,320 sq m during the quarter, which is one and a half times the average level of the previous five years’ first quarters. 98% of all leasing activity was recorded in logistics parks, where the average transaction size was 4,620 sq m, while the average deal size in city logistics schemes equalled 1,075 sq m.
The two largest transactions of the quarter were lease renewals. HOPI at Goodman Gyál Logistics Centre renewed its contract on 21,700 sq m, while in Prologis Park Budapest – Sziget Schneider Electric signed a lease renewal for 19,960 sq m. The largest new lease agreement amounted to 7,000 sq m and was signed in Budapest Dock Szabadkikötő. The largest lease expansion was recorded in Prologis Park Budapest – Batta on 4,180 sq m.
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In 2017 industrial and logistics property developers became more active, and the total stock surpassed 2 million square meters. The amount of annual handover was more than 100 thousand square metres for the first time since 2009; the majority of the developments were finished in the second half of the year.
New developments of about 118 thousand square meters were completed in 2017, this is 50% higher than the volume last, and is roughly as big as the development volume of the past five years.
The biggest new hall was made at Inpark Páty Industrial Park: Kühne & Nagel could move into the new establishment of 23 thousand square meters in the third quarter. The new developments which are currently in process take up about 130 thousand square metres. Out of these Üllő Airport Logistics Center is a significant project, here more than 85 thousand square metre of new property is expected to be handed over in the third quarter of 2018.
There was a new record in leases in 2017: following a very strong first half year the annual volume of transactions was close to 620 thousand square metres. This was the first time when demand was bigger than 500 thousand square metres. The number of lease extensions, new contracts and pre-lease agreements increased significantly compared to last year, however, there was a smaller demand for expanding leased areas.
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ESTON International hereby reports The Budapest Research Forum’s Q2 2017 industrial market snapshot.
In the second quarter of 2017, two buildings were added to the industrial stock with a total size of 20,380 sq m. A new 8,790 sq m warehouse was delivered at BILK Logistics Park, whilst the BRF included M7 Dunaharaszti – an existing 11,590 sq m warehouse to the Greater Budapest industrial stock.
The total modern industrial stock in Budapest, and its surroundings, stands at 1,953,790 sq m as of the end of Q2 2017.
Total demand amounted to 212,750 sq m in Q2 2017, which is the highest quarterly volume on record. Renewals accounted for 75% of the total take-up, while the share of new lease agreements amounted to 19% of the total take-up. Two pre-leases were signed during the quarter, totalling 10,980 sq m and represented 5% of the total take-up, whilst the remaining 1% was generated by expansions.
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71 thousand square meters of new industrial/logistics premises were handed over in 2016; this amount exceeds the sum of all new deliveries from the previous five years. As vacant spaces ran out the intensifying of construction activity is foreseen; however, annual volume of new supply is not expected to return to the formerly usual levels of 150-200 thousand square meters.
Several pre-let and BTS halls are expected to come to the market in 2018; majority of these are located in the southern sector of the M0 ring road.
Developers’ interest is rising in launching new (partially) speculative projects. New developments are primarily realized in the southern-Budapest agglomeration.
Strengthening developers’ activity
Following a negative period between 2011 and 2015 logistical property developments have taken up, owing to the vacancy rate which fell below 10%.
In the first six months of 2016 an area of 22 thousand square meters was handed over, which is four times bigger than the volume last year. New properties, the size of which is nearly 60 thousand square meters are being built, they are expected to be completed before the end of the year, and there is a prelease agreement for almost the half of them.
New industrial and logistical properties – of around 20 thousand square meters – are planned to be handed over by 2017, but considering the short completion time of logistical halls this figure may rise considerably.
Developers are more and more willing to start investments on a (partly) speculative basis. The new developments are taking place mainly in the southern agglomeration of Budapest.
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Development bottoming out
In the segment of logistics and industrial properties only the fourth quarter of 2015 brought new completions; as such, the development volume dropped compering to an already low base. Similarly to the previous years no new speculative developments are expected.
As known, logistics property development output dropped below 60 thousand square meters in 2010 when speculative schemes vanished from the market due to the crisis. Due to an improving economic situation, increasing consumption and retail trade the rate of stock expansion is expected to grow in 2016; however, total stock is not forecasted to surpass 2 million square meters.
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